A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

The expansion of farm-based plantation forestry in Vietnam.

This study targets plantation forestry by farm households (small holders), which is increasing globally and most rapidly in China and Vietnam. By use of an interdisciplinary approach on three study sites in Vietnam, we examined the trends in farmers' tree planting over time, the various pre-requisites for farm-based plantation forestry and its impact on rural people's livelihood strategies, socioeconomic status, income and security. The findings indicated a change from subsistence to cash-based household economy, diversification of farmers' incomes and a transformation of the landscape from mainly natural forests, via deforestation and shifting cultivation, to a landscape dominated by farm-based plantations. The trend of transformation, over a period of some 30 years, towards cash crops and forestry was induced by a combination of policy, market, institutional, infrastructural and other conditions and the existence of professional farming communities, and was most rapid close to the industrial market.

Land-use and land-cover dynamics in the central rift valley of Ethiopia.

Understanding the complexity of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes and their driving forces and impacts on human and environmental security is important for the planning of natural resource management and associated decision making. This study combines and compares participatory field point sampling (pfps) and remote sensing to explore local LULC dynamics. The study was conducted in two peasant associations located in the central Ethiopian Rift Valley, which is a dry-land mixed farming area exposed to rapid deforestation. From 1973-2006, the area of cropland doubled at the expense of woodland and wooded-grassland in both of the study sites. Major deforestation and forest degradation took place from 1973-1986; woodland cover declined from 40% to 9% in one of the study sites, while the other lost all of its original 54% woodland cover. Our study concludes that assessing LULC dynamics using a combination of remote sensing and pfps is a valuable approach. The two methods revealed similar LULC trends, while the pfps provided additional details on how farmers view the changes. This study documents dramatic trends in LULC over time, associated with rapid population growth, recurrent drought, rainfall variability and declining crop productivity. The alarming nature of these trends is reflected in a decrease in the livelihood security of local communities and in environmental degradation. Given these dry-land conditions, there are few opportunities to improve livelihoods and environmental security without external support. If negative changes are to be halted, action must be taken, including building asset bases, instituting family planning services, and creating opportunities outside these marginal environments.

Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia.

We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process; and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels.

Government plans and farmers intentions: a study on forest land use planning in Vietnam.

In 1998, the Vietnamese National Assembly approved a Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program, (5MHRP) 1998-2010. It would increase forest cover by some 45%, use barren hills, produce wood, and generate socioeconomic development. It would, however, also put demands on Vietnamese planning. Experiences from a former development project and two case studies from a commune and village are used as a basis for analyzing the planning system. The study describes the objectives and strategies of government and farmers in one commune and one village and analyzes how planning data influence scenarios on future development. Official planning data do not reflect reality but are derived through negotiations. In the commune and village studied, it would be difficult for the 5MHRP to materialize, as most of the forest land, officially not yet used, is actually used for food production. The approach and method used by the study offers alternatives to current planning practices.